In March, the coronavirus began to have an impact on jobs in the United States.

The nation’s unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in February; by March, it had risen to 4.4 percent.

The Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank that describes itself as non-partisan, estimates that a year-over-year, 1-percent decrease in the unemployment rate corresponds with an aggregate loss of $45 billion in state budgets.

For this thought experiment, take The New York Times’ estimate that the U.S. unemployment rate is now somewhere around 13 percent and will remain 13 percent for an entire year — a 9.5-percent coronavirus-related, year-over-year increase (February’s rate was 3.5 percent).

$45 billion x 9.5 = $427.5 billion of lost state budget revenues

The 50 states collectively took in $1.105 trillion ($1,105,249,000) in tax revenue in the calendar year 2019, according to the United States Census Bureau. 

New York State was responsible for $91.3 billion of that tax revenue, according to the Census Bureau. But, since New York State’s fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31, although the state collected $73.6 billion in tax revenue during fiscal year 2018-19, it’s not an apple-to-apples comparison.

Back to the collective worst-case scenario. 

After enduring a year of 13-percent coronavirus-related unemployment, states would be left with $678 billion in tax receipts (using 2019 revenues).

Is a year-long COVID-caused depression with an unemployment rate not seen since 1940, the year before the United States entered World War II, within the realm of possibility?

The largest year-over-increase in the unemployment rate had been between 2008 and 2009, during the Great Recession, when the rate went from 5.8 percent to 9.3 percent — 3.5-percent spike.

$45 billion x 3.5 = $157.5 billion of lost state budget revenues

So it’s possible to think that the tax revenues of the states next year could be $947 billion ($947,749,000) — a 14-percent drop in revenue doesn’t sound absurd. 

For New York State, using the calendar year 2019 census tax data ($91.3 billion), a 14-percent decrease in tax revenue, translates into a $12.8 billion loss, or $78.51 billion.

And the state is already in a massive hole, with a $6 billion budget deficit that has swelled to $10 billion. 

The revenue problem will only become compounded because the majority, about two-thirds in fiscal year 2018-19, of New York State’s tax revenue comes from personal income tax.

And not only are the unemployed currently not generating the state’s majority tax revenue, many have become dependent on the state since they are out of work. 

This time last month, about 14,000 new unemployment claims were filed in New York State, according to the United States Department of Labor, and the week after that the number of new claims jumped to over 80,500.

The New York State Department of Labor announced on April 2 that 369,025 unemployment insurance claims had been filed for the week ending March 28.

And for the week ending April 4, there were 345,246 new claims, according to the United States Department of Labor.

About this time last year, 127,307 were receiving unemployment benefits in the state.

Should the majority of workers who filed an initial claim for the week ending April 4 be approved for benefits, then 10 times as many New Yorkers would be on unemployment than just a year ago.

 For the week ending March 28, 715,750 were receiving benefits while a week later 345,246 had filed a new claim — so there’s the potential that right now over 1 million Empire State residents are on the dole. 

But there is federal money.

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act provides $150 billion in direct assistance for state, tribal, and territorial governments — $139 billion is allocated to state governments based on their populations with no state receiving less than $1.25 billion; New York State is slated to receive $7.5 billion.

The federal government is also handing out over $30 billion to education, with New York receiving nearly $2 billion — about $1 billion will go toward public school funding; about $798 million is for higher education; and the remaining $168 million will be emergency relief used at the discretion of the governor.